Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Athletics HOU @ ATH

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

81-81  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 3:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-98  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Johnson

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peter Lambert 8-10 3.87 1.26 153.2 153
Seth Johnson 1-0 6.19 1.69 32.0 38
8-10 W-L 1-0
3.87 Ldr ERA 6.19
1.26 Ldr WHIP 1.69
153.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 32.0
153 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 38
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
60%
📊
ATHLETICS
40%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (ATH)
ASTROS 67% Book Odds: -199
ATHLETICS 38% Book Odds: +163
Book Implied: 66.60% / 38%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 10.5 45%
Under 10.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

35.4%

Athletics Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.5%

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 6
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 6
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Astros Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
C
Sim u10.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +79.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs Athletics: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +77.2% more
Houston: 3.4 vs Athletics: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +44.1% more
Houston: 22.8 vs Athletics: 12.8
Walks (L5) +27.8% more
Houston: 3.9 vs Athletics: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 5.5 9
ATH Score 4.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 10.8 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 3.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 10.6 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 22.8 5.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.9 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +118 → -199 / +163 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
87%TICKETS13%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 10.5 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 58 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 6 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 8 hours, 55 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 9 hours, 5 minutes ago
Cloud Production Secrets: NBC Sports, MLB, NHL, and Warner Bros.…
sportsvideo 9 hours, 5 minutes ago