TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 15-5 | 2.94 | 1.07 | 177.1 | 108 |
| Zack Wheeler | 13-5 | 3.06 | 1.06 | 156.0 | 188 |
15-5
W-L
13-5
2.94 Ldr
ERA
3.06
1.07
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
177.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
156.0
108
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 188
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
PHILLIES
50%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (TB)
RAYS
37%
Book Odds: +169
PHILLIES
67%
Book Odds: -207
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 6.5
69%
Under 6.5
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
TB @ PHI
3 - 7
Sep 26, 2026
TB @ PHI
12 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
TB @ PHI
2 - 0
May 8, 2025
PHI @ TB
7 - 6
May 7, 2025
PHI @ TB
7 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.728
▲
OPS
.724
169
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+11.2% more
Philadelphia: 4.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Tampa Bay: 40.2%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+64.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Philadelphia: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
3
PHI Score
5.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 10.0
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 0.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.4
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.2 / 14.3
23.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.9
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -105
→
+169 / -207
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TB
PHI
TB
ML
59%
97-67
58%
95-68
49%
80-84
58%
95-68
ATS
65%
107-57
60%
97-66
51%
83-81
55%
90-73
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-76-9
51%
78-75-10
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