Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

74-87  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:35 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

76-85  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jonah Tong
STARTING PITCHER

Jonah Tong

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonah Tong 2-2 4.21 1.32 25.2 25
Jake Irvin 2-9 5.40 1.37 101.2 104
2-2 W-L 2-9
4.21 Ldr ERA 5.40
1.32 Ldr WHIP 1.37
25.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 101.2
25 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
METS
51%
📊
NATIONALS
49%
METS 52% Book Odds: -109
NATIONALS 53% Book Odds: -111
Book Implied: 52.20% / 52.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 64%
Under 8.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
New York Mets (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

65.5%

Nationals Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.7%

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
4.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
6
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +21.9% more
New York: 8.7 vs Washington: 6.8
Home Runs (L5) +15.8% more
New York: 1.3 vs Washington: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +10.3% more
New York: 13.8 vs Washington: 12.3
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.8 7
WSH Score 4.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.0 3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 8.7 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 13.8 3.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.4 / 3.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -109 / -111 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
46%TICKETS54%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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