FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
2-0-1 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
1-1-1 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
33%
LIGHTNING
67%
▲ Edge: +8.80% (FLA)
PANTHERS
24%
Book Odds: +320
LIGHTNING
80%
Book Odds: -410
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
60%
Under 5.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
FLA By 1 goal
8.6%
FLA By 2-3 goals
5.5%
TB By 1 goal
18.9%
TB By 2-3 goals
34.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
2.2
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 2
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Panthers
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
C
Sim
Panthers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
FLA @ TB
5 - 3
Feb 5, 2026
FLA @ TB
1 - 6
Dec 27, 2025
TB @ FLA
4 - 2
Dec 15, 2025
FLA @ TB
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
TB @ FLA
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+62.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Florida: 2.8
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.1%
Tampa Bay: 62.1%
vs
Florida: 60.0%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+29.7% more
Florida: 33.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 23.7
Power Play % (L5)
+16.6%
Florida: 16.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
2.2
5
TB Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
9.3 / 10.0
6.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
62.1 / 60.0
58.3 / 41.7
Hits
22.3 / 21.8
26.0 / 41.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 1662.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
23.7 / 33.7
28.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 2.8
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410
→
+320 / -410
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
FLA
TB
FLA
ML
44%
41-53
49%
42-43
55%
52-42
53%
45-40
ATS
63%
59-35
56%
48-37
54%
51-43
54%
46-39
TTL
47%
42-47-5
45%
38-47
98%
92-2
99%
84-1
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