PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
1-2-0 | Road
0
COLUMBUS
BLUE JACKETSCBJ
2-1-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
51%
BLUE JACKETS
49%
▲ Edge: +20% (PIT)
PENGUINS
31%
Book Odds: +220
BLUE JACKETS
73%
Book Odds: -270
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1 goal
19.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
34.1%
CBJ By 1 goal
9.2%
CBJ By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2
Columbus
2.5
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2
Columbus
4
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jackets
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.5
A
Sim
Penguins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
PIT @ CBJ
0 - 4
Jan 17, 2026
CBJ @ PIT
4 - 3
Jan 4, 2026
PIT @ CBJ
5 - 4
Nov 28, 2025
PIT @ CBJ
4 - 3
Oct 25, 2025
CBJ @ PIT
5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+33.3%
Pittsburgh: 33.3%
vs
Columbus: 0.0%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.8% more
Pittsburgh: 29.3
vs
Columbus: 25.0
Hits (L5)
+13.9% more
Pittsburgh: 25.4
vs
Columbus: 21.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+11.7%
Pittsburgh: 54.6%
vs
Columbus: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.0
0
CBJ Score
2.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.3 / 14.0
13.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
42.9 / 54.6
63.6 / 36.4
Hits
21.9 / 25.4
27.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 3333.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.0 / 29.3
17.0 / 15.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 4.3
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +220 / -270
→
+220 / -270
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBJ
PIT
CBJ
PIT
ML
53%
45-40
51%
45-44
49%
42-43
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
53-32
55%
49-40
48%
41-44
52%
46-42
TTL
52%
43-40-2
45%
39-47-3
98%
83-2
98%
86-2
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