BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
1-1-1 | Road
2
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
2-0-1 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
48%
RED WINGS
52%
▲ Edge: +17.20% (BUF)
SABRES
31%
Book Odds: +220
RED WINGS
73%
Book Odds: -270
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
9.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
6.1%
DET By 1 goal
19.1%
DET By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
2.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Wings
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
BUF @ DET
2 - 3
Mar 27, 2026
DET @ BUF
5 - 2
Nov 15, 2025
BUF @ DET
5 - 4
Oct 22, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 4
Sep 27, 2025
DET @ BUF
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.7%
Detroit: 52.1%
vs
Buffalo: 50.4%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+28.8% more
Buffalo: 27.7
vs
Detroit: 19.7
Takeaways (L5)
+23.7% more
Buffalo: 5.2
vs
Detroit: 4.0
Power Play % (L5)
+11.0%
Buffalo: 22.2%
vs
Detroit: 11.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
2.5
2
DET Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.7 / 14.7
13.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
52.1 / 50.4
47.4 / 52.6
Hits
21.4 / 20.6
21.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
11.2 / 22.2
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
19.7 / 27.7
26.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 5.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285
→
+220 / -270
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
BUF
DET
BUF
ML
55%
47-38
56%
55-43
46%
39-46
47%
45-51
ATS
60%
51-34
61%
60-38
46%
39-46
46%
44-52
TTL
41%
32-47-6
59%
54-38-6
98%
83-2
98%
94-2
Contextual Game News
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