BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
2-1-0 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
1-2-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
51%
FLYERS
49%
▲ Edge: +22% (BOS)
BRUINS
29%
Book Odds: +240
FLYERS
75%
Book Odds: -298
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
59%
Under 5.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BOS -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1 goal
18.9%
BOS By 2-3 goals
34.9%
PHI By 1 goal
8.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
Philadelphia
2.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bruins
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
A
Sim
Bruins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
BOS @ PHI
0 - 2
Sep 22, 2026
PHI @ BOS
1 - 5
Apr 5, 2026
BOS @ PHI
1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026
PHI @ BOS
3 - 6
Sep 29, 2025
PHI @ BOS
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+50.0% more
Boston: 14.7
vs
Philadelphia: 7.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+42.5%
Boston: 55.2%
vs
Philadelphia: 12.8%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+28.2% more
Boston: 28.3
vs
Philadelphia: 20.3
Hits (L5)
+20.2% more
Boston: 29.7
vs
Philadelphia: 23.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.8
0
PHI Score
2.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
7.3 / 14.7
12.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
12.8 / 55.2
57.1 / 42.9
Hits
23.7 / 29.7
16.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
2220.0 / 2780.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
20.3 / 28.3
28.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 3.7
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +240 / -298
→
+240 / -298
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BOS
PHI
BOS
ML
47%
45-50
51%
46-44
47%
45-50
59%
53-37
ATS
59%
56-39
71%
64-26
45%
43-52
57%
51-39
TTL
52%
47-43-5
57%
50-37-3
97%
92-3
97%
87-3
Contextual Game News
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