COLUMBUS
BLUE JACKETSCBJ
1-1-0 | Road
1
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
1-1-0 | Home
5
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JACKETS
45%
SABRES
55%
▲ Edge: +16.90% (CBJ)
BLUE JACKETS
28%
Book Odds: +260
SABRES
77%
Book Odds: -325
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLUMBUS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CBJ +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBJ)
CBJ By 1 goal
9.2%
CBJ By 2-3 goals
6.1%
BUF By 1 goal
19.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Columbus
2.5
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 2
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Columbus
4
COLUMBUS
Book Implied: 2
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jackets
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jackets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
C
Sim
Blue Jackets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
A
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
CBJ @ BUF
1 - 5
Apr 9, 2026
CBJ @ BUF
0 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
BUF @ CBJ
1 - 5
Oct 28, 2025
CBJ @ BUF
4 - 3
Sep 23, 2025
CBJ @ BUF
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+33.3%
Buffalo: 33.3%
vs
Columbus: 0.0%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.4%
Buffalo: 46.2%
vs
Columbus: 43.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+29.5% more
Columbus: 5.5
vs
Buffalo: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CBJ Score
2.5
1
BUF Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 16.0
14.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 43.8
58.9 / 41.1
Hits
20.3 / 18.9
21.0 / 28.0
Power Play %
3330.0 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.0 / 25.0
35.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 5.5
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +245 / -305
→
+260 / -325
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
CBJ
BUF
CBJ
ML
56%
54-43
54%
45-39
46%
44-51
49%
41-43
ATS
62%
60-37
63%
53-31
45%
43-52
49%
41-43
TTL
59%
54-37-6
52%
43-39-2
99%
94-1
99%
83-1
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