DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
1-0-1 | Road
7
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
1-1-0 | Home
4
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
36%
PENGUINS
64%
RED WINGS
39%
Book Odds: +154
PENGUINS
65%
Book Odds: -185
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
â–˛
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
66%
Under 5.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1 goal
9.2%
DET By 2-3 goals
6.1%
PIT By 1 goal
19.1%
PIT By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2.5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 2
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Penguins
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Red Wings
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
C
Sim
Red Wings (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
đź‘‘ Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 22, 2026
DET @ PIT
7 - 4
Mar 31, 2026
DET @ PIT
1 - 5
Jan 3, 2026
PIT @ DET
4 - 1
Jan 1, 2026
DET @ PIT
3 - 4
Sep 29, 2025
PIT @ DET
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+67.6% more
Pittsburgh: 28.7
vs
Detroit: 17.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+55.1% more
Pittsburgh: 28.0
vs
Detroit: 18.1
Power Play % (L5)
+49.8%
Pittsburgh: 50.0%
vs
Detroit: 0.2%
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.4%
Detroit: 56.2%
vs
Pittsburgh: 53.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.5
7
PIT Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.0 / 13.0
14.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
53.8 / 56.2
56.1 / 43.9
Hits
28.7 / 17.1
19.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
50.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
28.0 / 18.1
32.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185
→
+154 / -185
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DET
PIT
DET
ML
51%
45-44
55%
47-38
55%
48-40
46%
39-46
ATS
55%
49-40
60%
51-34
52%
46-42
46%
39-46
TTL
45%
39-47-3
41%
32-47-6
98%
86-2
98%
83-2
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