NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
0-1-0 | Road
2
NEW JERSEY
DEVILSNJ
2-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
35%
DEVILS
65%
▲ Edge: +9.40% (NYR)
RANGERS
25%
Book Odds: +295
DEVILS
79%
Book Odds: -375
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 5.5
67%
Under 5.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
NYR By 1 goal
9.2%
NYR By 2-3 goals
6.1%
NJ By 1 goal
19.1%
NJ By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 1.50
New Jersey
4
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 1.50
New Jersey
2
NEW JERSEY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Devils
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rangers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
B
Sim
Rangers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
B
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 21, 2026
NYR @ NJ
2 - 3
Mar 31, 2026
NJ @ NYR
1 - 4
Mar 18, 2026
NJ @ NYR
6 - 3
Mar 7, 2026
NYR @ NJ
3 - 6
Oct 2, 2025
NJ @ NYR
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+16.9%
New Jersey: 70.1%
vs
New York: 53.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+48.5%
New York: 48.5%
vs
New Jersey: 0.0%
Hits (L5)
+29.8% more
New York: 24.7
vs
New Jersey: 17.3
Takeaways (L5)
+16.2% more
New York: 4.2
vs
New Jersey: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYR Score
2.5
2
NJ Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.0 / 12.1
10.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
70.1 / 53.2
41.3 / 58.7
Hits
17.3 / 24.7
23.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 4852.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.1 / 21.9
31.0 / 18.0
Takeaways
3.5 / 4.2
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
+295 / -375
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+2.5 / -2.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NJ
NYR
NJ
NYR
ML
43%
37-49
56%
47-37
50%
43-43
44%
37-47
ATS
63%
54-32
51%
43-41
51%
44-42
45%
38-46
TTL
54%
46-39-1
52%
42-38-4
98%
84-2
99%
83-1
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