PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
0-1-0 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
1-0-1 | Home
5
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
31%
CAPITALS
69%
▲ Edge: +10% (WSH)
FLYERS
46%
Book Odds: +120
CAPITALS
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5
49%
Under 6.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1 goal
9.2%
PHI By 2-3 goals
6.1%
WSH By 1 goal
19.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
34.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.50
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 2.50
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Capitals
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Flyers
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Flyers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 21, 2026
PHI @ WSH
2 - 5
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+47.7% more
Washington: 32.0
vs
Philadelphia: 21.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+8.5% more
Washington: 16.0
vs
Philadelphia: 14.7
Hits (L5)
+43.7% more
Philadelphia: 41.2
vs
Washington: 23.2
Power Play % (L5)
+20.4%
Philadelphia: 20.4%
vs
Washington: 0.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.5
2
WSH Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.0 / 14.7
0.0 / 0.0
Faceoff %
4800.0 / 4723.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
23.2 / 41.2
0.0 / 0.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 20.4
33.3 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
32.0 / 21.7
27.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.7
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155
→
+120 / -142
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
52%
44-40
48%
45-49
58%
48-35
47%
44-50
ATS
63%
53-31
60%
56-38
58%
48-35
46%
43-51
TTL
62%
50-31-3
53%
47-42-5
98%
81-2
98%
92-2
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