WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
0-0-1 | Road
2
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
1-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
52%
BRUINS
48%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (BOS)
CAPITALS
59%
Book Odds: -142
BRUINS
46%
Book Odds: +120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
5.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 5.5
59%
Under 5.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
18.9%
WSH By 2-3 goals
34.9%
BOS By 1 goal
8.6%
BOS By 2-3 goals
5.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
2.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Capitals
Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
C
Sim
Capitals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim
o5.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BOS @ WSH
2 - 3
Sep 20, 2026
WSH @ BOS
2 - 3
Mar 14, 2026
BOS @ WSH
3 - 2
Mar 7, 2026
WSH @ BOS
1 - 3
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+22.3% more
Washington: 29.0
vs
Boston: 22.5
Power Play % (L5)
+12.5%
Washington: 13.9%
vs
Boston: 1.5%
Hits (L5)
+130.2% more
Boston: 38.7
vs
Washington: 16.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.1% more
Boston: 18.6
vs
Washington: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
2
BOS Score
2.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.6 / 16.7
17.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
52.0 / 50.1
52.0 / 48.0
Hits
38.7 / 16.8
23.0 / 36.0
Power Play %
1.5 / 13.9
16.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.5 / 29.0
30.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.1
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120
→
-142 / +120
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
51%
46-44
52%
44-40
59%
53-37
58%
48-35
ATS
71%
64-26
63%
53-31
57%
51-39
58%
48-35
TTL
57%
50-37-3
62%
50-31-3
97%
87-3
98%
81-2
Contextual Game News
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