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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

79-82  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Rogers

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Rogers 10-11 4.07 1.18 165.2 153
Will Warren 10-6 4.02 1.38 152.1 151
10-11 W-L 10-6
4.07 ERA Ldr 4.02
1.18 Ldr WHIP 1.38
165.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 152.1
153 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 151
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
📊
YANKEES
60%
▲ Edge: +7.40% (NYY)
ORIOLES 53% Book Odds: -111
YANKEES 52% Book Odds: -109
Book Implied: 52.60% / 52.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 69%
Under 6.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
OriolesBAL (-1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+1.5)
New York Yankees (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

36.3%

Yankees Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Orioles Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2026 BAL @ NYY 3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026 NYY @ BAL 6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 NYY @ BAL 5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 NYY @ BAL 3 - 1
May 13, 2026 NYY @ BAL 0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYY
161 ▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.711
OPS
▲ 1.041
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +101.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Errors (L5) +71.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Baltimore: 0.4
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
New York: 2.3 vs Baltimore: 1.4
Walks (L5) +49.2% more
New York: 2.9 vs Baltimore: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 3
NYY Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 5.6 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 7.9 12.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 11.5 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → -111 / -109 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
88%TICKETS12%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BAL
NYY
BAL
ML
47% 76-85
53% 83-73
52% 85-77
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-66
61% 95-60-1
53% 86-76
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 81-73-7
54% 81-70-5
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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