Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Nationals NYM @ WSH

NEW YORK

METSNYM

73-87  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Sep 25 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

76-84  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jefry Yan
STARTING PITCHER

Jefry Yan

#84 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andrew Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Alvarez

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jefry Yan 2-1 4.34 1.61 18.2 25
Andrew Alvarez 2-6 3.17 1.26 108.0 107
2-1 W-L 2-6
4.34 ERA Ldr 3.17
1.61 WHIP Ldr 1.26
18.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 108.0
25 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
METS
47%
📊
NATIONALS
53%
METS 52% Book Odds: -108
NATIONALS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 51.90% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 65%
Under 8.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Washington)
MetsNYM (-1.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

34.5%

Nationals Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

NYM By 1-2 runs

14.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

WSH By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
5.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.705
OPS
▲ .744
204
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +35.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs New York: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +19.0% more
Washington: 1.2 vs New York: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season) +17.6% more
Washington: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
Strikeouts (L5) +16.5% more
Washington: 8.2 vs New York: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.2 6
WSH Score 5.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.5 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 7.0 4.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 12.1 15.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -108 / -112 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
44%TICKETS56%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57% 92-69
50% 79-80
54% 87-74
48% 76-83
ATS
58% 93-68
58% 93-66
57% 91-70
49% 78-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 80-66-13
42% 65-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Ryan Walters Returns to Purdue with Mixed Emotions as Washington…
si 4 hours, 10 minutes ago
Yankees Unlikely to Bring Back Paul Goldschmidt as First Base Lo…
sportingnews 10 hours, 6 minutes ago
Freddy Peralta's Remarkable Turnaround: From Mets Disappointment…
yardbarker 10 hours, 13 minutes ago
Rangers' Rebuilt Prospect Pipeline Poised to Fuel Long-Term Succ…
si 16 hours, 13 minutes ago
Yankees 2026 Report Card: Cam Schlittler Shines, Aaron Judge Str…
yahoo 16 hours, 43 minutes ago