Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Saints ATL @ NO

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Mon, Oct 5 • 8:15 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-3  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
@
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
Player
Jake Bailey None-None
Ryan Wright None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
44%
📊
SAINTS
56%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (NO)
FALCONS 51% Book Odds: -102
SAINTS 54% Book Odds: -118
Book Implied: 50.50% / 54.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 47.5 45%
Under 47.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New Orleans)
FalconsATL (+1.5) 0 SaintsNO (-1.5)
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

43.2%

Saints Cover

56.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.5%

ATL By 7-13 points

13.4%

NO By 1-6 points

16.9%

NO By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 23
24.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
21
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 23
24
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Saints (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 ATL @ NO 45 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 NO @ ATL 17 - 19
Nov 23, 2025 ATL @ NO 24 - 10
Nov 10, 2024 ATL @ NO 17 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 NO @ ATL 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +41.3% more
New Orleans: 262.1 vs Atlanta: 185.5
First Downs (L5) +16.2% more
New Orleans: 23.0 vs Atlanta: 19.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
New Orleans: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.3% more
Atlanta: 170.1 vs New Orleans: 106.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 21.8 45
NO Score 24.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 19.8 22.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 262.1 / 185.5 270.0 / 215.0
Rushing Yards 106.7 / 170.1 50.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 368.8 / 355.5 320.0 / 420.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.6 4.6 / 7.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → -102 / -118 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 47.5 ↑
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
NO Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
NO Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.9 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.6
NO
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ATL
NO
ATL
ML
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
33% 3-6
ATS
38% 3-5
33% 3-6
38% 3-5
33% 3-6
TTL
12% 1-7
33% 3-6
25% 2-6
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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