Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Giants ARI @ NYG

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

1-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Oct 4 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

3-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
@
Jordan Stout
KEY GAME

Jordan Stout

#15 | Punter
Player
Chad Ryland None-None
Jordan Stout None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
29%
📊
GIANTS
71%
▲ Edge: +24% (NYG)
CARDINALS 57% Book Odds: -135
GIANTS 47% Book Odds: +114
Book Implied: 57.40% / 46.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 43.5 52%
Under 43.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (New York)
CardinalsARI (-2.5) 0 GiantsNYG (+2.5)
New York Giants (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

40.1%

Giants Cover

59.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

ARI By 1-6 points

15.0%

ARI By 7-13 points

12.5%

NYG By 1-6 points

17.0%

NYG By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 23
24
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
19
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 23
26
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Giants Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
A
Sim Giants (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.5
D
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 ARI @ NYG 24 - 36
Sep 17, 2023 NYG @ ARI 31 - 28
Dec 13, 2020 ARI @ NYG 26 - 7
Oct 20, 2019 ARI @ NYG 27 - 21
Dec 24, 2017 NYG @ ARI 0 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.5% more
New York: 125.2 vs Arizona: 94.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.1% more
Arizona: 234.3 vs New York: 163.7
First Downs (L5) +14.1% more
Arizona: 21.5 vs New York: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Arizona: 328.8 vs New York: 288.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 20.5 24
NYG Score 24.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 21.5 17.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 163.7 / 234.3 232.0 / 147.0
Rushing Yards 125.2 / 94.5 87.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 288.8 / 328.8 319.0 / 270.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 3.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.7 5.2 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +260 / -325 → -135 / +114 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
ARI
NYG
ARI
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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