Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Indiana @ Rutgers IU @ RUTG

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

5-0  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 8:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

1-4  |  Home

15
Key Game
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Billy Gowers None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INDIANA
91%
📊
RUTGERS
9%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (RUTG)
INDIANA 96% Book Odds: -2400
RUTGERS 8% Book Odds: +1200
Book Implied: 96% / 7.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.4
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.1 (Under)
Over 56.5 31%
Under 56.5 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+24.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Rutgers)
IndianaIU (-24.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (+24.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Indiana Cover

4.3%

Rutgers Cover

95.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG +24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

IU By 1-6 points

5.9%

IU By 7-13 points

12.1%

RUTG By 1-6 points

2.5%

RUTG By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
36.2
INDIANA
Book Implied: 40.50
12.2
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
33
INDIANA
Book Implied: 40.50
34
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Indiana Win
91% Win Prob
A
Sim Rutgers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rutgers (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
D
Sim Rutgers (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.4
A
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 IU @ RUTG 47 - 15
Oct 21, 2023 RUTG @ IU 31 - 14
Oct 22, 2022 IU @ RUTG 17 - 24
Nov 13, 2021 RUTG @ IU 38 - 3
Oct 31, 2020 IU @ RUTG 37 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Indiana: 232.0 vs Rutgers: 181.8
Turnovers (L5) +147.0% more
Rutgers: 1.7 vs Indiana: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +8.9% more
Rutgers: 24.5 vs Indiana: 22.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 36.2 47
RUTG Score 12.2 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 22.5 9.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 181.8 / 232.0 59.0 / 329.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.14 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 449.9 / 460.7 254.0 / 593.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2778 / +1300 → -2400 / +1200 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -24.5 / +24.5 → -24.5 / +24.5
53%TICKETS47%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
RUTG Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
IU
RUTG
IU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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