Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Boise St USU @ BOIS

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

1-4  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

4-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
25%
📊
BOISE ST
75%
▲ Edge: +14% (USU)
UTAH STATE 11% Book Odds: +780
BOISE ST 92% Book Odds: -1206
Book Implied: 11.40% / 92.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 51%
Under 51.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.6
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
+19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Utah State)
Utah StateUSU (+19.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (-19.5)
Utah State Aggies (+19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

79.6%

Boise St Cover

20.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU +11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

USU By 1-6 points

9.6%

USU By 7-13 points

6.2%

BOIS By 1-6 points

14.4%

BOIS By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 16
31.8
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
24
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 16
37
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Boise St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Boise St Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah State (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.6
A
Sim Utah State (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 USU @ BOIS 18 - 37
Nov 28, 2025 BOIS @ USU 25 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 USU @ BOIS 30 - 62
Nov 18, 2023 BOIS @ USU 45 - 10
Nov 25, 2022 USU @ BOIS 23 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +73.2% more
Boise State: 219.9 vs Utah State: 126.9
First Downs (L5) +35.8% more
Boise State: 23.5 vs Utah State: 17.3
Total Yards (L5) +31.1% more
Boise State: 435.2 vs Utah State: 332.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Boise State: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 20.2 18
BOIS Score 31.8 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 17.3 20.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 219.9 / 126.9 185.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 435.2 / 332.0 429.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1786 → +780 / -1206 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 51.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
USU
BOIS
USU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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