Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ Louisiana ARST @ UL

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

2-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 8:00 PM ET
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

4-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Jakohri Johnson
KEY GAME

Jakohri Johnson

#94 | Defensive Tackle
@
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
Player
Jakohri Johnson None-None
Mason Golding None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
41%
📊
LOUISIANA
59%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (ARST)
ARKANSAS ST 37% Book Odds: +170
LOUISIANA 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.6
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 (Over)
Over 49.5 67%
Under 49.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Arkansas State)
Arkansas StARST (+5.5) 0 LouisianaUL (-5.5)
Arkansas State Red Wolves (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

61.2%

Louisiana Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

12.1%

UL By 1-6 points

17.0%

UL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 22
30.8
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
22
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 22
30
LOUISIANA
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Louisiana (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.6
A
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ARST @ UL 20 - 23
Nov 20, 2025 UL @ ARST 34 - 30
Nov 9, 2024 ARST @ UL 19 - 55
Nov 4, 2023 UL @ ARST 17 - 37
Oct 22, 2022 ARST @ UL 18 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.0% more
Louisiana: 1.4 vs Arkansas State: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.2% more
Louisiana: 172.5 vs Arkansas State: 136.8
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Louisiana: 0.6 vs Arkansas State: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Arkansas State: 0.4 vs Louisiana: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 26.8 20
UL Score 30.8 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 19.2 26.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 172.5 / 136.8 246.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 340.6 / 357.8 435.0 / 293.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +170 / -205 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
81%TICKETS19%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
ARST
UL
ARST
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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