Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Miami OH BGSU @ M-OH

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

1-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Yager Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

2-3  |  Home

20
Key Game
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
@
Kellan McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Kellan McLaughlin

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Kingston None-None
Kellan McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
26%
📊
MIAMI OH
74%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (BGSU)
BOWLING GREEN 22% Book Odds: +360
MIAMI OH 82% Book Odds: -469
Book Implied: 21.70% / 82.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 41.5 75%
Under 41.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami (OH))
Bowling GreenBGSU (+10.5) 0 Miami OHM-OH (-10.5)
Miami (OH) RedHawks (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

21.6%

Miami OH Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around M-OH -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

BGSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

M-OH By 1-6 points

14.7%

M-OH By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 15.50
32
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
17
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 15.50
29
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami OH Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami OH Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami OH (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Miami OH (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Sim o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 BGSU @ M-OH 24 - 20
Nov 29, 2024 M-OH @ BGSU 28 - 12
Oct 7, 2023 BGSU @ M-OH 0 - 27
Oct 15, 2022 M-OH @ BGSU 13 - 17
Nov 16, 2021 BGSU @ M-OH 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +61.7% more
Miami (OH): 379.6 vs Bowling Green: 234.8
First Downs (L5) +43.1% more
Miami (OH): 19.5 vs Bowling Green: 13.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Miami (OH): 0.4 vs Bowling Green: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 21.0 24
M-OH Score 32.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 13.6 20.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 105.4 / 107.7 108.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.46
Total Yards 379.6 / 234.8 306.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +575 / -847 → +360 / -469 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +15.5 / -15.5 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 41.5 ↓
80%TICKETS20%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
M-OH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
BGSU
M-OH
BGSU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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