Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Kent State OHIO @ KENT

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

3-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Jake Stoeckel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
66%
📊
KENT STATE
34%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (OHIO)
OHIO 63% Book Odds: -173
KENT STATE 40% Book Odds: +151
Book Implied: 63.40% / 39.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 55%
Under 50.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OHIO
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Ohio)
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Ohio Bobcats (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

69.1%

Kent State Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OHIO -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

OHIO By 1-6 points

16.5%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.3%

KENT By 1-6 points

12.9%

KENT By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
OHIO
Book Implied: 27
23
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
27
OHIO
Book Implied: 27
22
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Ohio Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Ohio (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OHIO @ KENT 13 - 10
Nov 6, 2024 OHIO @ KENT 41 - 0
Oct 7, 2023 KENT @ OHIO 17 - 42
Oct 1, 2022 OHIO @ KENT 24 - 31
Oct 23, 2021 KENT @ OHIO 34 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.5% more
Ohio: 224.3 vs Kent State: 135.8
First Downs (L5) +27.1% more
Ohio: 21.2 vs Kent State: 15.4
Total Yards (L5) +26.5% more
Ohio: 407.9 vs Kent State: 299.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs Kent State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 30.0 13
KENT Score 23.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 21.2 18.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 135.8 / 224.3 49.0 / 181.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 299.8 / 407.9 266.0 / 253.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -198 / +164 → -173 / +151 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
KENT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
OHIO
KENT
OHIO
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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