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MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

2-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 4:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

5-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Bryce McFerson None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARYLAND
30%
📊
NEBRASKA
70%
▲ Edge: +12.90% (MD)
MARYLAND 17% Book Odds: +500
NEBRASKA 88% Book Odds: -700
Book Implied: 16.70% / 87.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 61%
Under 52.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
+15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Maryland)
MarylandMD (+15.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (-15.5)
Maryland Terrapins (+15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maryland Cover

74.0%

Nebraska Cover

26.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

MD By 1-6 points

11.5%

MD By 7-13 points

8.0%

NEB By 1-6 points

15.7%

NEB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24.2
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 18.50
33.2
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
27
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 18.50
36
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nebraska Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Nebraska Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland (+15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
B
Sim Maryland (+15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.4
B
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MD @ NEB 23 - 48
Oct 11, 2025 NEB @ MD 34 - 31
Nov 11, 2023 MD @ NEB 13 - 10
Nov 23, 2019 NEB @ MD 54 - 7
Nov 19, 2016 MD @ NEB 7 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +112.2% more
Nebraska: 213.5 vs Maryland: 100.6
Total Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Nebraska: 433.6 vs Maryland: 367.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Nebraska: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
Nebraska: 22.8 vs Maryland: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MD Score 24.2 23
NEB Score 33.2 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 20.5 28.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 213.5 / 100.6 209.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 433.6 / 367.9 447.0 / 395.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +410 / -549 → +500 / -700 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +15.5 / -15.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
22%TICKETS78%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: -5.5
NEB Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 24.0 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: -5.5
NEB Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 24.0 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +6.2
NEB
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
MD
NEB
MD
ML
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
ATS
17% 1-5
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
TTL
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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