Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Purdue @ Illinois PUR @ ILL

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

2-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 4:15 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

2-3  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
@
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
Player
Dylan Drennan None-None
Lars Rau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
15%
📊
ILLINOIS
85%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (ILL)
PURDUE 25% Book Odds: +295
ILLINOIS 79% Book Odds: -375
Book Implied: 25.30% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 61.5 51%
Under 61.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.4
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.4 points (Illinois)
PurduePUR (+10) 0 IllinoisILL (-10)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

9.4%

Illinois Cover

90.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -18.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

PUR By 1-6 points

5.1%

PUR By 7-13 points

2.6%

ILL By 1-6 points

9.7%

ILL By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 25.80
40.2
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 35.80
Simulated Score
24
PURDUE
Book Implied: 25.80
27
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 35.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Loss
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Illinois Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Illinois (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.4
A
Sim Purdue (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
D
Sim u61.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 PUR @ ILL 24 - 17
Oct 4, 2025 ILL @ PUR 43 - 27
Oct 12, 2024 PUR @ ILL 49 - 50
Sep 30, 2023 ILL @ PUR 19 - 44
Nov 12, 2022 PUR @ ILL 31 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +103.0% more
Illinois: 167.4 vs Purdue: 82.5
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Illinois: 421.4 vs Purdue: 355.5
Turnovers (L5) +62.6% more
Purdue: 1.3 vs Illinois: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 21.8 24
ILL Score 40.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 20.6 26.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 167.4 / 82.5 120.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 421.4 / 355.5 345.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +295 / -375 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +10 / -10
35%TICKETS65%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 60.5 → 61.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
ILL Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
ILL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +9.2
ILL
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
PUR
ILL
PUR
ML
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
ATS
29% 2-5
33% 2-4-1
86% 6-1
67% 4-2-1
TTL
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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