Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama @ Mississippi St ALA @ MSST

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

5-0  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 12:00 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Alex Asparuhov None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
71%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
29%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (ALA)
ALABAMA 67% Book Odds: -205
MISSISSIPPI ST 37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 67.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +8.0 (Under)
Over 62.5 33%
Under 62.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
ALABAMA
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Alabama)
AlabamaALA (-5.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+5.5)
Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

75.1%

Mississippi St Cover

24.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ALA -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-6 points

15.5%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.7%

MSST By 1-6 points

11.1%

MSST By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
32
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
22.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
23
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
38
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Mississippi St Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Alabama (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
B
Sim Mississippi St (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
A
Sim u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ALA @ MSST 56 - 23
Sep 30, 2023 ALA @ MSST 40 - 17
Oct 22, 2022 MSST @ ALA 6 - 30
Oct 16, 2021 ALA @ MSST 49 - 9
Oct 31, 2020 MSST @ ALA 0 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Mississippi State: 0.9 vs Alabama: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +17.3% more
Mississippi State: 25.7 vs Alabama: 21.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Mississippi State: 186.1 vs Alabama: 160.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 32.0 56
MSST Score 22.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 21.9 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 186.1 / 160.9 18.0 / 179.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 487.4 / 452.8 302.0 / 483.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -180 / +150 → -205 / +170 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 62.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSST
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 17.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
MSST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +7.1
MSST
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ALA
MSST
ALA
ML
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
ATS
29% 2-5
75% 6-2
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
TTL
29% 2-5
50% 4-4
0% 0-7
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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