Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Iowa OSU @ IOWA

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

4-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 3:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

4-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Boston Everitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
64%
📊
IOWA
36%
▲ Edge: +19.50% (IOWA)
OHIO STATE 88% Book Odds: -700
IOWA 17% Book Odds: +500
Book Implied: 87.50% / 16.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 52%
Under 46.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
IOWA
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Iowa)
Ohio StateOSU (-14.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+14.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

33.4%

Iowa Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IOWA +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

OSU By 1-6 points

16.7%

OSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

IOWA By 1-6 points

13.5%

IOWA By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 30.50
20.5
IOWA
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
31
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 30.50
30
IOWA
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Ohio State Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Sim Iowa (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OSU @ IOWA 31 - 14
Oct 5, 2024 IOWA @ OSU 7 - 35
Oct 22, 2022 IOWA @ OSU 10 - 54
Nov 4, 2017 OSU @ IOWA 24 - 55
Oct 19, 2013 IOWA @ OSU 24 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Ohio State: 0.9 vs Iowa: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.9% more
Ohio State: 497.4 vs Iowa: 398.5
First Downs (L5) +18.4% more
Ohio State: 25.1 vs Iowa: 20.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Iowa: 193.5 vs Ohio State: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 26.5 31
IOWA Score 20.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 25.1 15.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 193.5 / 152.0 39.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 398.5 / 497.4 238.0 / 484.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -699 / +500 → -700 / +500
97%TICKETS3%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -14.5 / +14.5
61%TICKETS39%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 46.5 ↑
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
IOWA
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 25.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
IOWA
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.2
IOWA
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
OSU
IOWA
OSU
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
ATS
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
14% 1-6
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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