Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Clemson MIA @ CLEM

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

5-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Oct 3 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

3-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Nolan Hauser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
81%
📊
CLEMSON
19%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (CLEM)
MIAMI 88% Book Odds: -700
CLEMSON 17% Book Odds: +500
Book Implied: 87.50% / 16.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 51%
Under 49.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
-14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
MiamiMIA (-14) 0 ClemsonCLEM (+14)
Miami Hurricanes (-14) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

85.8%

Clemson Cover

14.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.2%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.5%

CLEM By 1-6 points

7.2%

CLEM By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
32.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 31.80
17.5
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 17.80
Simulated Score
37
MIAMI
Book Implied: 31.80
24
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 17.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Clemson (+14) Loss
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 MIA @ CLEM 41 - 13
Oct 21, 2023 CLEM @ MIA 20 - 28
Nov 19, 2022 MIA @ CLEM 10 - 40
Oct 10, 2020 MIA @ CLEM 17 - 42
Dec 2, 2017 MIA @ CLEM 3 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +36.7% more
Miami: 545.9 vs Clemson: 345.3
First Downs (L5) +30.2% more
Miami: 28.9 vs Clemson: 20.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Clemson: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.5% more
Miami: 205.0 vs Clemson: 175.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 32.5 41
CLEM Score 17.5 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 28.9 22.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 175.3 / 205.0 55.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 345.3 / 545.9 350.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -1351 / +800 → -700 / +500 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -18.5 / +18.5 → -14 / +14 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
MIA
CLEM
MIA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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