Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ New Mexico St WKU @ NMSU

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

1-4  |  Road

13
FINAL
Thu, Oct 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

2-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jackson Smith
KEY GAME

Jackson Smith

#43 | Place kicker
@
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
Player
Jackson Smith None-None
Brody Richter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
51%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
49%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (WKU)
WESTERN KY 49% Book Odds: +105
NEW MEXICO ST 56% Book Odds: -125
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 49%
Under 55.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (+1.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (-1.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

51.7%

New Mexico St Cover

48.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

16.6%

WKU By 7-13 points

15.8%

NMSU By 1-6 points

16.3%

NMSU By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27
27.2
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 27
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Western KY Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim New Mexico St Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Western KY (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
C
Sim New Mexico St (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 WKU @ NMSU 13 - 34
Nov 1, 2025 NMSU @ WKU 16 - 35
Nov 9, 2024 WKU @ NMSU 41 - 28
Nov 11, 2023 NMSU @ WKU 38 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.5% more
New Mexico State: 2.4 vs Western Kentucky: 1.8
First Downs (L5) +18.4% more
New Mexico State: 22.4 vs Western Kentucky: 18.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 27.8 13
NMSU Score 27.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 18.9 17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 137.4 / 138.0 206.0 / 43.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.39
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 406.8 / 386.2 352.0 / 357.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +105 / -125 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 55.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
NMSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
WKU
NMSU
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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