SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
64-92 | Road
1
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
96-60 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Wilkinson
#71 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Jack Dreyer
#86 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wilkinson | 1-3 | 4.58 | 1.12 | 19.2 | 12 |
| Jack Dreyer | 5-2 | 3.19 | 1.13 | 59.1 | 68 |
1-3
W-L
5-2
4.58
ERA
Ldr 3.19
1.12 Ldr
WHIP
1.13
19.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 59.1
12
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 68
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
31%
DODGERS
69%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (SF)
GIANTS
30%
Book Odds: +229
DODGERS
74%
Book Odds: -287
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
SF By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
San Francisco
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Giants
Loss
61% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
LAD @ SF
2 - 0
Sep 20, 2026
SF @ LAD
1 - 3
Sep 19, 2026
SF @ LAD
4 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
SF @ LAD
2 - 8
May 14, 2026
SF @ LAD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
159
Games Played
159
4.18
Runs / Game
▲
4.97
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.308
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.339
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.425
.711
OPS
▲
.764
178
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+86.6% more
Los Angeles: 2.1
vs
San Francisco: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+50.4% more
Los Angeles: 20.2
vs
San Francisco: 13.4
Walks (L5)
+37.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.6
vs
San Francisco: 3.3
Hits (L5)
+34.6% more
Los Angeles: 11.3
vs
San Francisco: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.5
1
LAD Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.3 / 8.4
11.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.3 / 9.9
7.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
20.2 / 13.4
17.0 / 2.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.3
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +273 / -349
→
+229 / -287
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-94-0
(40.9%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
97-62-0
(61.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.6%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
LAD
(42.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-71-12
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-83-4
O: 46.5% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SF
LAD
SF
ML
55%
88-71
49%
77-81
48%
76-84
54%
85-73
ATS
59%
94-65
62%
98-60
44%
70-90
52%
82-76
TTL
49%
76-79-4
54%
81-68-9
45%
70-86-4
46%
68-80-10
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