Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Dodgers SF @ LAD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

64-91  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

95-60  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Yunior Marte

#87 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tarik Skubal
STARTING PITCHER

Tarik Skubal

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yunior Marte 0-0 2.45 1.09 14.2 9
Tarik Skubal 10-7 2.70 0.95 146.2 173
0-0 W-L 10-7
2.45 Ldr ERA 2.70
1.09 WHIP Ldr 0.95
14.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 146.2
9 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 173
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
38%
📊
DODGERS
62%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (SF)
GIANTS 24% Book Odds: +317
DODGERS 81% Book Odds: -413
Book Implied: 24% / 80.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 DodgersLAD (-1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

63.7%

Dodgers Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.5%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
5.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Giants Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAD @ SF 5 - 1
Sep 26, 2026 LAD @ SF 4 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 LAD @ SF 2 - 0
Sep 20, 2026 SF @ LAD 1 - 3
Sep 19, 2026 SF @ LAD 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.706
OPS
▲ .762
178
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +123.7% more
Los Angeles: 2.6 vs San Francisco: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +43.0% more
Los Angeles: 18.8 vs San Francisco: 13.2
Walks (L5) +25.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.4 vs San Francisco: 3.5
Runs per Game (Season) +19.6% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.8 4
LAD Score 5.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.5 15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 9.4 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 13.2 23.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +248 / -313 → +317 / -413 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
6%TICKETS94%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-67-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(42.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
75-90-5
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SF
LAD
SF
ML
54% 92-77
49% 79-81
48% 81-89
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 98-71
62% 100-60
44% 75-95
52% 83-77
TTL
49% 80-83-6
55% 82-68-10
45% 73-91-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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