ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
90-64 | Road
6
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
77-77 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 6-10 | 3.91 | 1.25 | 138.0 | 127 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-9 | 3.71 | 1.22 | 145.2 | 141 |
6-10
W-L
8-9
3.91
ERA
Ldr 3.71
1.25
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
138.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 145.2
127
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 141
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
43%
ASTROS
57%
▲ Edge: +7% (HOU)
BRAVES
55%
Book Odds: -120
ASTROS
50%
Book Odds: +100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
56%
Under 8.0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
4 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 18, 2026
ATL @ HOU
6 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
HOU @ ATL
3 - 8
Sep 13, 2025
HOU @ ATL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Houston
HOU
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.757
▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+139.0% more
Houston: 2.8
vs
Atlanta: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.7% more
Houston: 8.0
vs
Atlanta: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+24.8% more
Houston: 18.0
vs
Atlanta: 14.4
Errors (L5)
+10.0% more
Houston: 0.4
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.5
6
HOU Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.9
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.2
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 14.4
6.0 / 22.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.7
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100
→
-120 / +100
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATL
HOU
ATL
ML
50%
81-82
46%
77-90
47%
77-87
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
96-71
55%
90-74
52%
87-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
83-73-11
45%
69-86-9
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…