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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

84-70  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

93-60  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ranger Suarez 7-4 3.33 1.19 137.2 130
Ian Seymour 9-6 4.27 1.14 122.1 150
7-4 W-L 9-6
3.33 Ldr ERA 4.27
1.19 WHIP Ldr 1.14
137.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 122.1
130 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 150
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
48%
📊
RAYS
52%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (BOS)
RED SOX 47% Book Odds: +114
RAYS 58% Book Odds: -137
Book Implied: 46.70% / 57.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 70%
Under 7.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Boston Red Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

63.7%

Rays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +354.0% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Hits (L5) +43.3% more
Tampa Bay: 8.1 vs Boston: 5.6
Total Bases (L5) +37.0% more
Tampa Bay: 12.8 vs Boston: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.8 4
TB Score 5.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 5.6 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.6 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 9.4 8.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.5 9.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131 → +114 / -137 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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