BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
83-70 | Road
4
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
76-77 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Alexander
#13 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 17-5 | 2.76 | 1.17 | 156.2 | 140 |
| Tyler Alexander | 5-2 | 3.38 | 1.28 | 66.2 | 57 |
17-5
W-L
5-2
2.76 Ldr
ERA
3.38
1.17 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
156.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
66.2
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
57
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
53%
RANGERS
47%
RED SOX
57%
Book Odds: -130
RANGERS
48%
Book Odds: +108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Texas
3.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.713
2
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
Boston: 0.9
vs
Texas: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
Boston: 0.4
vs
Texas: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+13.4% more
Boston: 2.8
vs
Texas: 2.4
Home Runs (Season)
+9050.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.2
4
TEX Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 5.9
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.5
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 9.6
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -111
→
-130 / +108
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BOS
TEX
BOS
ML
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-67
61%
98-63
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
78-70-14
46%
72-83-5
55%
81-66-14
47%
74-83-6
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