ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
61-92 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
93-59 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeffrey Springs
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 4-13 | 5.93 | 1.45 | 135.0 | 105 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 14-5 | 2.81 | 0.92 | 160.1 | 160 |
4-13
W-L
14-5
5.93
ERA
Ldr 2.81
1.45
WHIP
Ldr 0.92
135.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 160.1
105
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 160
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
30%
RAYS
70%
ATHLETICS
31%
Book Odds: +223
RAYS
74%
Book Odds: -279
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Athletics
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026
ATH @ TB
3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
ATH @ TB
1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026
TB @ ATH
8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026
TB @ ATH
12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲
.728
194
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+21.8% more
Tampa Bay: 8.6
vs
Athletics: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+17.6% more
Tampa Bay: 14.8
vs
Athletics: 12.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Athletics: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
1
TB Score
5.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.5
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.4
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 12.6
9.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.2 / 1.6
9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -192
→
+223 / -279
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATH
TB
ATH
ML
58%
95-68
59%
95-67
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
52%
84-78
55%
90-73
50%
81-80
TTL
47%
73-81-9
54%
84-73-5
51%
78-75-10
42%
66-90-5
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