Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Saints LV @ NO

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

3-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 4:25 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

1-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Ryan Wright None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
38%
📊
SAINTS
62%
RAIDERS 39% Book Odds: +160
SAINTS 66% Book Odds: -192
Book Implied: 38.50% / 65.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 43.5 44%
Under 43.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
RaidersLV (+3.5) 0 SaintsNO (-3.5)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

37.4%

Saints Cover

62.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

LV By 1-6 points

14.4%

LV By 7-13 points

11.7%

NO By 1-6 points

16.9%

NO By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 20
23
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
19
LAS VEGAS
Book Implied: 20
24
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Saints Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Saints (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.5
C
Sim u43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LV @ NO 35 - 27
Dec 29, 2024 LV @ NO 25 - 10
Oct 30, 2022 LV @ NO 0 - 24
Sep 21, 2020 NO @ LV 24 - 34
Sep 11, 2016 LV @ NO 35 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +57.8% more
New Orleans: 276.7 vs Las Vegas: 175.3
First Downs (L5) +40.3% more
New Orleans: 21.0 vs Las Vegas: 15.0
Total Yards (L5) +38.2% more
New Orleans: 362.7 vs Las Vegas: 262.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.6% more
New Orleans: 5.4 vs Las Vegas: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 18.5 35
NO Score 23.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 15.0 27.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 276.7 / 175.3 233.0 / 227.0
Rushing Yards 86.0 / 87.2 148.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 362.7 / 262.5 381.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 4.4 5.3 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +160 / -192 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3.5 / -3.5
53%TICKETS47%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 43.5 ↑
45%TICKETS55%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
NO
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
NO
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.5
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
LV
NO
LV
ML
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
ATS
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
TTL
0% 0-7
25% 2-6
14% 1-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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