Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Cowboys BAL @ DAL

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

2-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 4:25 PM ET
Maracanã Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

1-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ryan Eckley
KEY GAME

Ryan Eckley

#30 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Ryan Eckley None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
56%
📊
COWBOYS
44%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (DAL)
RAVENS 63% Book Odds: -170
COWBOYS 41% Book Odds: +142
Book Implied: 63% / 41.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 53.5 44%
Under 53.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3) 0 CowboysDAL (+3)
Baltimore Ravens (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

61.2%

Cowboys Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

17.0%

BAL By 7-13 points

18.0%

DAL By 1-6 points

14.7%

DAL By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
28
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 28.20
24
DALLAS
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
24
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 28.20
27
DALLAS
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+3) Push
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 BAL @ DAL 34 - 31
Aug 16, 2025 BAL @ DAL 31 - 13
Sep 22, 2024 BAL @ DAL 28 - 25
Dec 8, 2020 DAL @ BAL 17 - 34
Nov 20, 2016 BAL @ DAL 17 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.9% more
Baltimore: 1.2 vs Dallas: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.8% more
Baltimore: 160.5 vs Dallas: 87.0
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Baltimore: 384.7 vs Dallas: 337.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.9% more
Baltimore: 6.5 vs Dallas: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 28.0 34
DAL Score 24.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.5 27.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 251.0 / 224.3 267.0 / 186.0
Rushing Yards 87.0 / 160.5 148.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 337.9 / 384.7 415.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 6.5 5.8 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -135 / +114 → -170 / +142 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 53.5 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
DAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +0.7
DAL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.8
DAL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BAL
DAL
BAL
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1-1
50% 2-2-1
100% 4-0-1
100% 4-0-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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