Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Buccaneers MIN @ TB

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

3-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

0-3  |  Home

16
Key Game
Johnny Hekker
KEY GAME

Johnny Hekker

#5 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Johnny Hekker None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
45%
📊
BUCCANEERS
55%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (TB)
VIKINGS 53% Book Odds: -112
BUCCANEERS 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.6
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 (Over)
Over 42.5 59%
Under 42.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Tampa Bay)
VikingsMIN (-1.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+1.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

38.8%

Buccaneers Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MIN By 1-6 points

14.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

12.1%

TB By 1-6 points

17.0%

TB By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 22
24.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
23
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 22
21
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim Vikings (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.6
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 MIN @ TB 23 - 16
Sep 10, 2023 TB @ MIN 20 - 17
Dec 13, 2020 MIN @ TB 14 - 26
Sep 24, 2017 TB @ MIN 17 - 34
Oct 26, 2014 MIN @ TB 19 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +77.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7 vs Minnesota: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Tampa Bay: 16.9 vs Minnesota: 15.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 20.8 23
TB Score 24.8 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 15.5 11.0 / 9.0
Net Passing Yards 161.0 / 149.5 186.0 / 152.0
Rushing Yards 109.6 / 106.9 57.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.12 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 270.6 / 256.4 243.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.6 3.8 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -112 / -108 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 42.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: +7.1
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: +7.1
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -8.3
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIN
TB
MIN
ML
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0-1
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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