Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ 49ers ARI @ SF

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

1-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

3-0  |  Home

36
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Corliss Waitman
KEY GAME

Corliss Waitman

#15 | Punter
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Corliss Waitman None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
19%
📊
49ERS
81%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (SF)
CARDINALS 24% Book Odds: +310
49ERS 80% Book Odds: -395
Book Implied: 24.40% / 79.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.5
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.0 (Under)
Over 48.5 35%
Under 48.5 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Francisco)
CardinalsARI (+7.5) 0 49ersSF (-7.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

27.2%

49ers Cover

72.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ARI By 1-6 points

11.8%

ARI By 7-13 points

8.4%

SF By 1-6 points

15.9%

SF By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 20.50
26
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
29
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 20.50
18
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI 49ers Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Cardinals Loss
87% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
C
Sim Cardinals (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.5
B
Sim u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ARI @ SF 30 - 36
Nov 16, 2025 SF @ ARI 41 - 22
Sep 21, 2025 ARI @ SF 15 - 16
Jan 5, 2025 SF @ ARI 24 - 47
Oct 6, 2024 ARI @ SF 24 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.0% more
San Francisco: 126.7 vs Arizona: 95.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +29.8% more
San Francisco: 6.2 vs Arizona: 4.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
San Francisco: 0.6 vs Arizona: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
San Francisco: 22.0 vs Arizona: 18.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 17.5 30
SF Score 26.0 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 18.7 23.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 229.5 / 215.5 297.0 / 272.0
Rushing Yards 126.7 / 95.2 140.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 356.2 / 310.7 437.0 / 365.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.2 / 4.8 8.7 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +470 / -649 → +310 / -395 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
16%TICKETS84%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 48.5 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
SF Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
SF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.2 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.7
SF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
ATS
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jets' Week 6 Game Plan Must Include Isaiah Davis to Upset Patrio…
si 0 minutes ago
Trey McBride Embraces Cardinals' Struggles, Aims to Lead Turnaro…
yahoo 12 hours, 1 minute ago
Lions Poised to Build on Momentum Post-Bye, Host Packers and Vik…
darnews 12 hours, 2 minutes ago
Four Men Arrested in Connection with Shooting of 49ers' Keion Wh…
bleacherreport 1 day, 11 hours ago
Cardinals Stand Pat at Quarterback: Carson Beck's Role Unchanged…
si 1 day, 11 hours ago