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CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-2  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Sam Martin None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
51%
📊
BROWNS
49%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (CLE)
PANTHERS 57% Book Odds: -135
BROWNS 47% Book Odds: +114
Book Implied: 57.40% / 46.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 41.5 46%
Under 41.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
PanthersCAR (-2.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+2.5)
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

44.3%

Browns Cover

55.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CLE +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.9%

CAR By 7-13 points

16.8%

CLE By 1-6 points

15.7%

CLE By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22
19
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
19
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22
21
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Browns (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Browns (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CAR @ CLE 18 - 21
Sep 11, 2022 CLE @ CAR 26 - 24
Dec 9, 2018 CAR @ CLE 20 - 26
Dec 21, 2014 CLE @ CAR 13 - 17
Nov 28, 2010 CAR @ CLE 23 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Carolina: 252.1 vs Cleveland: 202.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Carolina: 352.8 vs Cleveland: 284.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Carolina: 100.7 vs Cleveland: 81.9
First Downs (L5) +15.7% more
Carolina: 18.7 vs Cleveland: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 21.0 18
CLE Score 19.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 18.7 17.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 202.3 / 252.1 127.0 / 262.0
Rushing Yards 81.9 / 100.7 132.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 284.2 / 352.8 259.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.8 4.1 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +105 → -135 / +114 ↓
87%TICKETS13%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39.5 → 41.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
CLE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
CLE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
CLE
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
CAR
CLE
CAR
ML
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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