MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
76-77 | Road
4
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
80-73 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | 1-5 | 4.14 | 1.40 | 78.1 | 65 |
| Merrill Kelly | 9-13 | 4.97 | 1.46 | 152.0 | 102 |
1-5
W-L
9-13
4.14 Ldr
ERA
4.97
1.40 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
78.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 152.0
65
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 102
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
44%
DIAMONDBACKS
56%
MARLINS
47%
Book Odds: +114
DIAMONDBACKS
58%
Book Odds: -138
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0
47%
Under 9.0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
MIA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
3.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Arizona
5.2
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
MIA @ ARI
4 - 2
Sep 14, 2026
MIA @ ARI
7 - 8
Jun 11, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 2
Jun 10, 2026
ARI @ MIA
0 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.727
▲
OPS
.720
168
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+28.3% more
Arizona: 1.5
vs
Miami: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+14.0% more
Arizona: 16.5
vs
Miami: 14.5
Hits (L5)
+12.2% more
Arizona: 9.7
vs
Miami: 8.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
3.2
4
ARI Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.6
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 10.2
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 14.5
20.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.6 / 4.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+114 / -138
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
MIA
ARI
MIA
ML
54%
87-74
48%
78-84
54%
86-74
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
91-71
56%
89-71
54%
86-74
TTL
52%
80-73-8
56%
88-69-5
49%
73-77-9
53%
82-73-5
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