Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

83-69  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

56-96  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Robbie Ray
STARTING PITCHER

Robbie Ray

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Adams

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robbie Ray 12-8 3.57 1.35 156.1 132
Mason Adams 0-0 3.38 1.45 18.2 22
12-8 W-L 0-0
3.57 ERA Ldr 3.38
1.35 Ldr WHIP 1.45
156.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 18.2
132 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 22
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
55%
📊
ROCKIES
45%
▲ Edge: +4.20% (COL)
PADRES 64% Book Odds: -175
ROCKIES 41% Book Odds: +144
Book Implied: 63.60% / 41%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 11.0 60%
Under 11.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
San Diego Padres (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

65.5%

Rockies Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.7%

COL By 1-2 runs

14.7%

COL By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
5.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o11.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
B
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +29.1% more
San Diego: 2.0 vs Colorado: 1.4
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
San Diego: 0.3 vs Colorado: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season) +18.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.8 9
COL Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.0 / 11.3 4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.0 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 5.4 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 20.6 / 19.0 8.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.3 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -197 / +162 → -175 / +144 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
85%TICKETS15%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5 → 11 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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