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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

75-78  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

69-83  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Chris Bassitt
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Bassitt

#40 | Starting Pitcher
@
Xzavion Curry
STARTING PITCHER

Xzavion Curry

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Bassitt 7-5 4.88 1.59 90.1 66
Xzavion Curry 0-0 3.44 1.31 18.1 12
7-5 W-L 0-0
4.88 ERA Ldr 3.44
1.59 WHIP Ldr 1.31
90.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 18.1
66 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 12
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
📊
METS
60%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (NYM)
ORIOLES 51% Book Odds: -105
METS 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 51.20% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 49%
Under 9.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
OriolesBAL (-1.5) 0 MetsNYM (+1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

36.3%

Mets Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.20
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.20
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 1
Sep 15, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 5
Sep 14, 2026 BAL @ NYM 2 - 1
Jul 10, 2025 NYM @ BAL 3 - 7
Jul 8, 2025 NYM @ BAL 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYM
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.711 ▲
OPS
.705
199
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +61.0% more
New York: 3.9 vs Baltimore: 2.4
Hits (L5) +9.4% more
New York: 9.1 vs Baltimore: 8.3
Home Runs (Season) +2.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Baltimore: 199.0
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
New York: 23.9% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 7
NYM Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.3 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.9 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 13.5 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 15.2 7.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131 → -105 / -115 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 9 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BAL
NYM
BAL
ML
50% 79-80
53% 83-73
48% 76-83
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 95-60-1
49% 78-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 81-70-5
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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