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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

61-91  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

92-59  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Basso

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brady Basso 1-2 3.86 1.39 37.1 28
Nick Martinez 14-4 2.92 1.07 166.1 98
1-2 W-L 14-4
3.86 ERA Ldr 2.92
1.39 WHIP Ldr 1.07
37.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 166.1
28 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 98
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
34%
📊
RAYS
66%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (TB)
ATHLETICS 39% Book Odds: +157
RAYS 66% Book Odds: -191
Book Implied: 38.90% / 65.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Athletics (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

63.7%

Rays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.20
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Rays Win
66% Win Prob
A
Sim Athletics Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Athletics (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 ATH @ TB 1 - 10
Sep 16, 2026 ATH @ TB 3 - 4
Sep 15, 2026 ATH @ TB 1 - 2
Aug 12, 2026 TB @ ATH 8 - 4
Aug 11, 2026 TB @ ATH 12 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.719
OPS
▲ .728
194 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7 vs Athletics: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +33.6% more
Tampa Bay: 15.1 vs Athletics: 11.3
Hits (L5) +27.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.4 vs Athletics: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season) +5.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 3.8 3
TB Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 6.6 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 8.7 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 11.3 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +187 / -231 → +157 / -191 ↓
15%TICKETS85%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
90%TICKETS10%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ATH
TB
ATH
ML
58% 95-68
59% 95-67
58% 95-68
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 97-66
52% 84-78
55% 90-73
50% 81-80
TTL
47% 73-81-9
54% 84-73-5
51% 78-75-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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