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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

72-80  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

76-77  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keider Montero 9-8 3.55 1.03 147.0 98
Max Scherzer 2-8 6.38 1.37 67.2 51
9-8 W-L 2-8
3.55 Ldr ERA 6.38
1.03 Ldr WHIP 1.37
147.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 67.2
98 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 51
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
52%
📊
BLUE JAYS
48%
▲ Edge: +4.30% (DET)
TIGERS 48% Book Odds: +109
BLUE JAYS 57% Book Odds: -131
Book Implied: 47.80% / 56.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

64.6%

Blue Jays Cover

35.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 DET @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 DET @ TOR 6 - 5
May 17, 2026 TOR @ DET 4 - 1
May 16, 2026 TOR @ DET 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
181 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +44.6% more
Detroit: 5.8 vs Toronto: 3.2
Total Bases (L5) +23.6% more
Detroit: 16.6 vs Toronto: 12.7
Home Runs (Season) +16.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Hits (L5) +14.5% more
Detroit: 9.5 vs Toronto: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.0 1
TOR Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.2 / 9.5 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 8.1 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 16.6 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.8 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -143 → +109 / -131 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
82%TICKETS18%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46% 74-87
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
ATS
56% 90-71
64% 101-58
49% 79-81
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 80-76-5
46% 69-81-9
45% 70-85-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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