Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

82-69  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

56-95  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Walker Buehler 8-6 4.61 1.36 138.2 121
Kyle Freeland 4-10 6.37 1.46 124.1 103
8-6 W-L 4-10
4.61 Ldr ERA 6.37
1.36 Ldr WHIP 1.46
138.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 124.1
121 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 103
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
57%
📊
ROCKIES
43%
▲ Edge: +5.30% (COL)
PADRES 67% Book Odds: -200
ROCKIES 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.70% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 11.0 55%
Under 11.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

35.4%

Rockies Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

15.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 6.20
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Padres Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o11.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u11.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
San Diego: 0.5 vs Colorado: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +23.8% more
San Diego: 1.4 vs Colorado: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season) +18.6%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Colorado: 73.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.5 3
COL Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 11.4 16.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.4 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 6.6 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 18.6 27.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.8 / 2.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -180 / +148 → -200 / +164 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 11 → 11
76%TICKETS24%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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