Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Mets BAL @ NYM

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

74-78  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

69-82  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Shane Baz
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Baz

#34 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane Baz 6-15 4.05 1.33 169.0 150
Sean Manaea 5-7 4.79 1.34 133.1 126
6-15 W-L 5-7
4.05 Ldr ERA 4.79
1.33 Ldr WHIP 1.34
169.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 133.1
150 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 126
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
42%
📊
METS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (NYM)
ORIOLES 47% Book Odds: +113
METS 58% Book Odds: -136
Book Implied: 46.90% / 57.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

63.7%

Mets Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 1
Sep 15, 2026 BAL @ NYM 7 - 5
Sep 14, 2026 BAL @ NYM 2 - 1
Jul 10, 2025 NYM @ BAL 3 - 7
Jul 8, 2025 NYM @ BAL 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
New York NYM
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.711 ▲
OPS
.705
199
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +83.0% more
New York: 1.7 vs Baltimore: 0.9
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Baltimore: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +2.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Baltimore: 199.0
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
New York: 23.9% vs Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 7
NYM Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.5 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 11.7 6.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 12.8 18.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.1 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +103 / -125 → +113 / -136 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
83%TICKETS17%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
BAL
NYM
BAL
ML
50% 79-80
53% 83-73
48% 76-83
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-66
61% 95-60-1
49% 78-81
57% 90-68-1
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 81-70-5
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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