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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

72-79  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

75-77  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Drew Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Anderson

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Anderson 4-6 3.80 1.31 97.0 105
Braydon Fisher 3-4 3.22 1.22 72.2 72
4-6 W-L 3-4
3.80 ERA Ldr 3.22
1.31 WHIP Ldr 1.22
97.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 72.2
105 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 72
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
42%
📊
BLUE JAYS
58%
TIGERS 45% Book Odds: +121
BLUE JAYS 59% Book Odds: -146
Book Implied: 45.20% / 59.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

63.7%

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

15.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.50
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 DET @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 DET @ TOR 6 - 5
May 17, 2026 TOR @ DET 4 - 1
May 16, 2026 TOR @ DET 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
181 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +71.0% more
Toronto: 1.7 vs Detroit: 1.0
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
Toronto: 0.9 vs Detroit: 0.4
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Detroit: 24.1%
Walks (L5) +29.3% more
Detroit: 4.7 vs Toronto: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 3.8 10
TOR Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.3 / 9.3 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.1 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 15.5 6.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.3 / 4.7 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -139 → +121 / -146 ↑
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
37%TICKETS63%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
46% 74-87
54% 86-73
50% 80-80
54% 87-73
ATS
56% 90-71
64% 101-58
49% 79-81
57% 91-69
TTL
51% 80-76-5
46% 69-81-9
45% 70-85-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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