Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Jax State MTSU @ JXST

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

2-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

3-2  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Garrison Rippa
KEY GAME

Garrison Rippa

#37 | Place kicker
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Garrison Rippa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
26%
📊
JAX STATE
74%
MTSU 30% Book Odds: +230
JAX STATE 74% Book Odds: -285
Book Implied: 30.30% / 74%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 56%
Under 51.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Jacksonville State)
MTSUMTSU (+7) 0 Jax StateJXST (-7)
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

21.6%

Jax State Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

MTSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

MTSU By 7-13 points

6.6%

JXST By 1-6 points

14.7%

JXST By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 22.20
32.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
23
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 22.20
33
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Jax State Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim Jax State (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 MTSU @ JXST 13 - 23
Oct 29, 2025 JXST @ MTSU 24 - 21
Oct 23, 2024 MTSU @ JXST 20 - 42
Oct 4, 2023 JXST @ MTSU 45 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.0% more
Jacksonville State: 1.0 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.5 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 0.5 vs Jacksonville State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 21.5 13
JXST Score 32.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 20.5 25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 156.1 / 151.1 276.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 386.0 / 377.6 517.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +264 / -339 → +230 / -285 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +7 / -7 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 51.5 ↓
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
MTSU
JXST
MTSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Carolina's Season Spirals After Alabama Blowout, Leaving F…
islandpacket 1 week, 4 days ago
Gamecocks and Tigers Set for Historic First Meeting in Annapolis
si 1 month ago
South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers Aims to Bounce Back and Make N…
wtop 1 month, 1 week ago
Bison Stampede into FBS: North Dakota State's Historic Ascent to…
yahoo 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Gamecocks Tight End Unit: Experience and Upside Define Position …
headtopics 1 month, 3 weeks ago