Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Long Island @ FIU LIU @ FIU

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

LONG ISLANDLIU

0-5  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

2-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Will Johnson
KEY GAME

Will Johnson

#24 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
Player
Will Johnson None-None
Felix Visser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LONG ISLAND
6%
📊
FIU
94%
LONG ISLAND 6% Book Odds: +1700
FIU 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
Over 54.5 48%
Under 54.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.5
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
+37.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Long Island University)
Long IslandLIU (+37.5) 0 FIUFIU (-37.5)
Long Island University Sharks (+37.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Long Island Cover

98.2%

FIU Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LIU +29.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIU)

LIU By 1-6 points

1.1%

LIU By 7-13 points

0.4%

FIU By 1-6 points

3.1%

FIU By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
12.5
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Book Implied: 8.50
42
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 46
Simulated Score
15
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
Book Implied: 8.50
32
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 46
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI FIU Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim FIU Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Long Island (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +29.5
A
Sim Long Island (+37.5) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.5
D
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 LIU @ FIU 3 - 20
Sep 2, 2021 LIU @ FIU 10 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +125.0% more
Florida International: 2.2 vs Long Island University: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +86.0% more
Florida International: 411.7 vs Long Island University: 221.3
First Downs (L5) +78.6% more
Florida International: 21.2 vs Long Island University: 11.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.3% more
Florida International: 128.8 vs Long Island University: 91.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIU Score 12.5 3
FIU Score 42.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 11.9 18.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 128.8 / 91.8 167.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 411.7 / 221.3 394.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3000 / -10000 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +35.5 / -35.5 → +37.5 / -37.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIU
--
FIU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIU
--
FIU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIU
--
FIU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
LIU
FIU
LIU
ML
100% 6-0
100% 3-0
100% 6-0
100% 3-0
ATS
40% 2-3-1
33% 1-2
40% 2-3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
67% 4-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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