Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bucknell @ Pitt BUCK @ PITT

BUCKNELL

BUCKNELLBUCK

1-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

4-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Juan Garanton
KEY GAME

Juan Garanton

#17 | Place kicker
@
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
Player
Juan Garanton None-None
Gabe Russo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKNELL
3%
📊
PITT
97%
BUCKNELL --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.0
Projected
Book Total
63.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 63.5 60%
Under 63.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+36.4
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
+54.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.1 points (Bucknell)
BucknellBUCK (+54.5) 0 PittPITT (-54.5)
Bucknell Bison (+54.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucknell Cover

99.5%

Pitt Cover

0.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUCK +36.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)

BUCK By 1-6 points

0.3%

BUCK By 7-13 points

0.1%

PITT By 1-6 points

1.1%

PITT By 7-13 points

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
BUCKNELL
Book Implied: 4.50
52.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 59
Simulated Score
13
BUCKNELL
Book Implied: 4.50
41
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 59
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Pitt Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Bucknell (+54.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +36.4
A
Sim Bucknell (+54.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +28.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 68.0
B
Sim u63.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 BUCK @ PITT 0 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +88.8% more
Pittsburgh: 161.1 vs Bucknell: 85.3
Total Yards (L5) +51.6% more
Pittsburgh: 390.9 vs Bucknell: 257.8
First Downs (L5) +51.5% more
Pittsburgh: 21.5 vs Bucknell: 14.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Bucknell: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUCK Score 15.8 0
PITT Score 52.2 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 14.2 35.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 161.1 / 85.3 192.0 / 31.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 390.9 / 257.8 766.0 / 136.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +53.5 / -53.5 → +54.5 / -54.5 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 63.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUCK
--
PITT Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUCK
--
PITT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUCK
--
PITT
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
BUCK
PITT
BUCK
ML
83% 5-1
100% 2-0
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 1-1
17% 1-5
50% 1-1
TTL
17% 1-5
0% 0-2
67% 4-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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