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APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

3-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 7:30 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

2-2  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jaxson Dunn
KEY GAME

Jaxson Dunn

#40 | Punter
@
Ke'Von Carter
KEY GAME

Ke'Von Carter

#42 | Linebacker
Player
Jaxson Dunn None-None
Ke'Von Carter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
13%
📊
NC STATE
87%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (NCSU)
APP STATE 20% Book Odds: +400
NC STATE 84% Book Odds: -535
Book Implied: 20% / 84.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.9 (Under)
Over 56.5 41%
Under 56.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (NC State)
App StateAPP (+12.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (-12.5)
NC State Wolfpack (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

7.7%

NC State Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

APP By 1-6 points

4.2%

APP By 7-13 points

2.1%

NCSU By 1-6 points

8.6%

NCSU By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
APP STATE
Book Implied: 22
35.8
NC STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
26
APP STATE
Book Implied: 22
31
NC STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC State Win
87% Win Prob
B
Sim NC State Win
68% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI NC State (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
B
Sim App State (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
C
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 APP @ NCSU 31 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.9% more
NC State: 211.2 vs App State: 146.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
NC State: 0.5 vs App State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 15.8 31
NCSU Score 35.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 23.5 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 211.2 / 146.7 206.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.65 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 466.0 / 445.9 459.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +400 / -535 → +400 / -535
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 56.5 ↑
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +9.7
NCSU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: +5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +9.7
NCSU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: +5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
NCSU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
APP
NCSU
APP
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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